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Nearly one in four GTA homes resold over the past year changed hands for less than their previous purchase price, according to new research from brokerage and data analytics platform Valery Real Estate, highlighting the financial losses some homeowners are facing in the region’s weakened housing market. The losses were particularly pronounced among properties purchased during the pandemic-era housing boom, with the vast majority of GTA homes bought in 2021 or 2022 that resold during the study period fetching less than their original purchase price. The findings come as Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) warns that mortgage arrears in Ontario are expected to continue rising through mid-2027, adding to concerns about financial pressures facing homeowners.
Source: CMHC. One in four GTA resales below previous purchase price Valery’s analysis of 27,271 GTA resales found that 24.8 per cent sold below their previous purchase price, with a median loss of 11 per cent among those transactions. After land transfer taxes and selling costs, the proportion resulting in a loss climbed to 32 per cent.
In Toronto, 28 per cent of 10,133 resales sold below their previous purchase price, rising to 38 per cent after transaction costs. Condominiums were particularly hard hit, with 38 per cent selling below their previous purchase price, compared to 20 per cent of detached homes. Pandemic-era buyers particularly hard hit The most striking findings concern properties purchased during the pandemic-era housing boom.
Of GTA homes purchased in 2021 or 2022 and resold during the study period, 80 per cent sold below their previous purchase price. After transaction costs, that figure climbed to 92 per cent. Among GTA condos purchased during those two years and subsequently resold, 87 per cent sold at a loss.
The findings are based on Valery’s analysis of Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS data covering sales closed between Oct. 25, 2025, and Oct. 24, 2026. Each property was matched to its previous sale, excluding teardowns, rebuilds and data errors. The figures are nominal, meaning they are not adjusted for inflation, and reflect properties that resold rather than all GTA homeowners.
Are sellers under financial pressure? Determining how many homeowners are being forced to sell remains difficult. Daniel Foch, a chief real estate officer with Valery, says listings explicitly signalling financial distress, including power-of-sale properties, those advertised with “as is, where is” conditions or those identifying motivated sellers, account for less than 1.5 per cent of listings.
He argues, however, that selling below the original purchase price can itself indicate financial pressure. “To me, selling at a loss is a position of distress,” he says. Mortgage arrears expected to rise through 2027 The findings come as CMHC reports that Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate reached 0.32 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, with further increases expected through mid-2027.
The agency expects Ontario to experience the largest and most sustained increase in mortgage arrears, particularly in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and Southwestern Ontario, where trade tensions, labour-market uncertainty and softer housing conditions are adding pressure. Financial pressure could persist for another two years Foch expects loss-making resales to remain a feature of the GTA market for approximately another two years, pointing to delinquency trends in other types of consumer credit. “We probably still have two years of this continuing,” he says, pointing to delinquency trends in other types of consumer credit.
He explains that financial distress can take time to work its way through household finances, with missed credit card or auto loan payments potentially preceding mortgage delinquency. Foch doesn’t necessarily expect the number of loss-making sales to keep growing, but believes they will remain a feature of the GTA housing market. “We’ll keep seeing sellers who need to square up their financial position in some way that includes taking an equity loss on their home.
That’ll continue being a portion of supply.” Rate hike adds another consideration The Bank of Canada’s Oct. 28 policy rate increase of 25 basis points introduces another challenge for mortgage holders, particularly those with variable-rate loans. Foch notes, however, that variable-rate mortgages remain cheaper than comparable five-year fixed-rate products, meaning the rate increase does not necessarily leave those borrowers worse off than if they had chosen a fixed rate. For homeowners who bought near the market peak and are now selling at a loss, the financial consequences can vary.
Foch says some sellers are investors accepting losses on unsuccessful purchases, while others may be owner-occupiers adjusting their housing costs. “They might rent instead or downsize into a smaller home to own that maybe better fits their monthly budget,” he says. Despite the growing pressure in Ontario, CMHC emphasizes that mortgage stress is not widespread across Canada.
Arrears have declined in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while British Columbia and Atlantic Canada are expected to experience more moderate increases. “Canada is not facing a broad mortgage crisis,” says Aled ab Iorwerth, CMHC’s deputy chief economist. “Financial pressure is becoming more concentrated in specific regions of the country and is appearing first in other debts, before mortgages.” Courtney Zwicker is a digital reporter and associate editor for REM.
Based in Atlantic Canada, she has over a decade of experience covering daily business news. Share this article:
Source: Real Estate Magazine Canada
